Ohio, September 23, 2022 – Today Change Research released a new poll showing that Ohio Republicans are deeply unpopular, including among suburban women, and are at risk of losing their statewide races in November due in part to their unpopular views on abortion.
See the findings here. The poll found:
- Tim Ryan is leading J.D. Vance by 5 points: 47-42.
- Vance’s statements about women raise further doubts about him with 62% of all voters, and 73% of suburban women.
- Even positive messaging regarding his campaign is not persuasive to voter
- All Ohio Supreme Court races are all close and 66% of voters say they are more important this year than in previous elections.
- Mike DeWine is struggling to retain Republican voters and is unfavorable with Democratic voters, including those who once viewed him favorably. Nan Whaley is trailing Mike DeWine by 6 points: 39-45.
- Media polls showing a greater differential between DeWine and Whaley may be catching onto a Trump bump. But DeWine has a problem with Trump voters that media polls are missing.
- When given an option not to vote in the governor’s race, 7% of voters chose that option. Looking at the crosstabs, these are almost exclusively Trump voters.
- The 10% who are “unsure” are politically mixed – and disproportionately suburban moms.
- All proposals, current laws, and ideations of abortion bans in Ohio are deeply unpopular with voters – especially suburban women.
- This is not just Democrats: over two-thirds of independents, those who will decide this election, and even one-third of Republicans oppose these laws.
- 83% of people knew of the story of the 10-year-old girl who had to leave the state to seek an abortion.
“For all wondering what the overturn of Roe v. Wade means for the midterms, we have your answer: The suburban woman backlash is here. Voters are seeing that today’s GOP is no longer their parent’s Republican Party. Mainstream suburban women are fired up to not only vote against extreme politicians in November, but to bring their friends and family with them.” – Katie Paris, Red Wine & Blue founder and Ohio suburban mom
“Ohio voters, and especially suburban women, are deeply concerned about the personal impact of the extremism they see, including abortion bans and their potential ramifications. That concern is at the forefront of their mind when considering who they’ll cast their vote for in November. This is not a good sign for Republicans.” – Stephen Clermont, Change Research Director of Polling
Change Research polled 1,209 voters in Ohio from September 2-7, 2022, conducted on behalf of Red Wine & Blue.
Red Wine & Blue’s Great Troublemaker Turnout is a friend-to-friend voter turnout program mobilizing suburban women volunteers to turn out hundreds of thousands of their friends and family in the 2022 midterms in Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.